• March 9, 2022
• Dan Hill

If there is anything Timo Werner has proven beyond doubt in his 18 months at Chelsea Football Club, it is that, off the pitch, he has done everything right. A fan favourite, his happy-go-lucky, easy-going charm means a bond with the club’s fans is strong. Where it really matters – on the pitch – it’s been far from plain sailing. At the time of writing, the German speedster had registered just eleven appearances and 575 minutes in the Premier League season, out of a possible 26 games and 2340 minutes.

It may be an uncomfortable thought for many who adore the sight of the German running down the Chelsea touchline, but the time may have come for club and player to part ways.

Problems at Chelsea

As astonishing as it is to say about a player who had the world at his feet after plundering 28 goals in 34 appearances for RB Leipzig, but it’s never quite clicked for Werner in London.

The question on everyone’s lips: why? The answer has several different facets to it but can be condensed into three key areas: position, assimilation, and goal involvement.

Position

One aspect of Timo Werner’s Chelsea career that hasn’t helped him is the fact that he has been played out of position virtually since he arrived. He is not a left wing. Nor is he a lone number nine. He doesn’t have the dribbling ability of a winger nor the vision and passing accuracy necessary to be productive in that role. Similarly, he is not physically imposing enough to play as a lone number nine in Chelsea’s system where the responsibility to win headers, play as a target man and link with his teammates weighs heavily.

Werner’s best attributes are his speed, his ability to play off the shoulder of the last defender and his attacking positioning.

The genius of Julian Nagelsmann at RB Leipzig and Ralf Rangnick before him saw Werner deployed perpetually in a two-pronged attack next to a taller, more physically imposing centre forward like Yusuf Poulsen or Marcel Sabitzer. This allowed the young German the freedom to latch onto knock downs, to play on the shoulder of the last defender and to use his pace to get in behind defenses. Analyse many of his 28 strikes for Leipzig in season 19/20 and you’ll notice how Werner’s pace, his foremost attribute, is used to tremendous effect because all he had to do was concentrate on making productive attacking runs when his team had the ball.

At Chelsea, the same freedoms are not afforded to Werner. Under Lampard, he operated on the left of a 4-2-3-1, a 3-4-3 or a 4-3-3. Occasionally, as in his debut against Brighton in September 2020, he played as the lone man up top. Standing at 1.8 metres tall and facing ‘massive’ centre halves, this was never going to be a recipe for success at Chelsea.

Under Tuchel, the German has operated as one of the left ‘10s’ to slightly better but not Leipzig-level effectiveness. Just six Premier League goals in 20/21 and one in 21/22 – albeit with nine assists – tell a tale of a forward who just isn’t as productive as he should be.

Assimilation

The strangest thing of all for Timo Werner is that his problems are not all of his own doing. The primary means by which Werner devastates an opponent, his pace, needs one thing to be rendered effective: space.

In the Bundesliga, the natural pressing, progressive style of football sees many teams play a high defensive line that leaves significant space for attacking players to exploit. Naturally, Werner was wildly successful in the league. He would regularly make a mockery of defenders in a foot race and latch on to through balls from his teammates to score.

In the Premier League, the space to play in behind a defense simply isn’t there. And it is less apparent when teams play Chelsea, rendering Werner a Ferrari in the middle of a construction site.

That he has thus far not reproduced his best form is as much down to the league in which he plays as it is an inability of his team to get the best out of him.

Chelsea, given the nearly annual alteration in head coach, have cultivated a culture of buying players to suit a system or a variety of systems rather than those who would suit the incumbent.

Werner is a player who thrives in a system that generates space for him to use his pace to stretch the opponent and create goalscoring opportunities for himself. In the Premier League, that just isn’t a reality for him.

Goal involvement

The most troubling part about Werner’s Chelsea career is that he has had good opportunities in front of goal. Last season, the German hit the woodwork five times to add to his six Premier League goals.

What stood out most, though, were his shooting numbers. In his final season in the Bundesliga at Leipzig, Werner took 117 shots, 59 of which were on target, giving him a 50.4% shot accuracy. From those 59 shots, he got 28 goals, giving him 0.42 goals per shot on target (G/SoT). Three times at Leipzig he matched or bettered this metric in four seasons. The only other time, where his G/SoT was 0.28, he still registered 13 goals in the league.

Compare that to his one and a bit seasons at Chelsea and it’s an entirely different story. Last season, Werner took 80 shots, 31 of which were on target and scored six goals. That gave him a G/SoT of a measly 0.19. in 21/22, it’s a similar story as he has had 20 shots, six on target and one goal for a G/SoT of 0.17.

When you figure in that Werner’s expected goals (xG) at Chelsea comes in at half of what it was in his final season at Leipzig, this is a sign of a forward whose level of attacking activity is vastly different from where it could and has been.

It tells the story of a player whose fit with his current team is far from ideal.

Werner at Chelsea: Not All Bad

It would be unfair to say Timo Werner hasn’t been successful at Chelsea. His iconic run to drag Ruben Dias away from goal to carve out space for compatriot Kai Havertz to score in the UEFA Champions League Final will live long in the memory.

As will his Champions League semi-final strike against Real Madrid, or his brace at home to Southampton in the Premier League. That Timo Werner is a quality footballer, a selfless player who has developed a tireless work ethic and commitment to his team, will never be in doubt.

What is in doubt is whether Chelsea’s number eleven has a long-term future at Stamford Bridge. The signing of Belgian Romelu Lukaku cast further doubt on his position at Chelsea and has thus far limited his appearances. Going into 2022/23 where an expectant owner and fanbase await a bona fide Premier League title challenge, he may find himself a sacrificial lamb in a drive to acquire a player who may take Chelsea closer to that aim.

On a personal note, with the 2022 World Cup on the horizon, there is an important consideration to be had such that he is on the plane to Qatar. As things stand, Hansi Flick may take him on sentiment rather than form.

The 2022 summer window may bring both Chelsea and Timo Werner to a point where an amicable parting would suit both. Though Werner hasn’t been able to show his best consistently in a league that appears to inhibit rather than welcome his talents, his departure would leave his many Chelsea fans heartsore even if there is a level of understanding that comes with it.

It may just be the time to give him the space to spread his wings.

(All statistics courtesy of fbref.com)

Written by Dan Hill (@idanknow05)