• March 31, 2022
• Olaoluwa Nwobodo

It’s clear that Chelsea doesn’t create as much as the Premier League’s top two teams Manchester City and Liverpool. The reason for this is that varies depending on who you ask. Chelsea has created 68 big chances/clear-cut chances in 28 league games so far, this is 22 less than Manchester City and 46 less than Liverpool in one less game. These big chances refer to big chances created either from open play, through penalties won, or through opposition errors. Chelsea is not creating as much as they should, but this is not for lack of competent personnel.

Tuchel has been experimenting to get the perfect “front three” or even “front four” since the middle of last season. He has a wide variety of forwards that all specialize in doing different things. As a result, it’s difficult for Tuchel to identify the players that would form the best partnership to create the most quality chances

“What’s this obsession with big chances anyway?” Most of the goals a team scores usually come from big chances. Most of the goals a striker scores definitely come from big chances. Romelu Lukaku, Chelsea’s marquee center forward signing, has only scored five league goals this season. The Premier League table currently has Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United, West Ham United, and Wolverhampton Wanderers in the top eight respectively. Of those teams, Chelsea is the only team where big chances don’t account for the majority of their goals. Big chances account for 28 out of 57 goals (49%) the Blues have scored this season. Liverpool has created the most big chances in the league, and big chances account for 81% of their league goals this season.

Big chances are important. Crucial. Chelsea is simply not creating enough of them. Part of this might mainly be that they do not have a clear-cut creative outlet (pun intended). This means that Chelsea doesn’t have a known player that they can look to for high-quality chances fairly regularly. Most top teams have a clear outlet for quality chances. Manchester City has Kevin De Bruyne, Liverpool has Trent Alexander-Arnold, and so on.

When you consider Chelsea players who have played at least 500 minutes this season, the player with the most big chances created is not even the player with the most expected assists per 90 (xA90). That player is also not the player with the most big chances per 90. In fact, three different Chelsea players lead the charts for key passes per 90 (KP90), big chances created per 90, expected assists per 90, and most big chances created in total.

Reece James leads Chelsea in chances created/key passes) per 90 (2.43), Hakim Ziyech leads Chelsea in big chances created per 90 (0.56), Reece James also leads Chelsea in expected assists per 90 (0.35) and Mason Mount leads Chelsea in total big chances created (8) in the league this season. James and Ziyech are tied on total big chances created this season (6), but James has played 215 more minutes than Ziyech. Mount, though, has played 482 more minutes than James. Of those four categories, the main creative outlet should usually lead in at least three categories.

It then becomes difficult to determine, not only who Chelsea’s main creative outlet is, but who it should be. Taking a look at xGChain and xGBuildup gives insight into how involved players are in the build-up and shot creation, despite not being the direct takers or direct creators of the shot. At the end of the day, chance creation is teamwork, and everyone has to play their part for a big chance or even any chance, to be created.

It is difficult to determine what metrics should be focused on when determining who the main creative outlet should be. It is, however, important that many angles are looked at, to get a good idea of how well each player contributes to chances.

The purpose of having a main creative outlet is not so that all the creative load would be dumped on them, but so that play flows quicker. There’s an understanding in the team when everyone knows who has creative freedom. An example is Ziyech at Ajax. He was the chief creator despite some other players on the team sometimes matching his creation numbers.

This meant that players knew to start making runs when he (Ziyech) got on the ball, rather than waiting for a return pass. This opens up more passing and creation options for a creator. It’s easier to create when there are several potential recipients of the creative pass, rather than when there are several potential providers of the creative pass.

In other words, several runners would be more beneficial to the team than several creative passers. To chuck up Ziyech’s numbers at Ajax to “oh it’s a weaker league of course he’d create more” is to completely ignore how the sport works. The German Bundesliga is said to be a league where goal scoring and goal creation are easier, however, Kevin De Bruyne did just as well in both the Bundesliga and the Premier League. Technical talent has something to do with it, however, the principles of chance creation still apply in every league; a creator needs runners to create for.

xGChain and xGBuildup reflect things key passes, big chances created and assists will not show. Ziyech ranks joint first and first in xGChain per 90 and xGBuildup per 90 respectively amongst forwards with up to 500 minutes under their belt. This, along with the fact that he ranks top 3 in one creation metric or another, could suggest that perhaps he should be Chelsea’s main creative outlet. Chelsea has to sort out this aspect of their play, as they need to start creating way more big chances than they currently are.

All big chances statistics are from SofaScore.com and xG, xA, xGChain and xGBuildup statistics are from Understat.com